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Reliability and Delay Distributions of Train Connections

Keyhani, Mohammad ; Schnee, Mathias ; Weihe, Karsten ; Zorn, Hans-Peter (2012)
Reliability and Delay Distributions of Train Connections.
Ljubljana, Slovenia
doi: 10.4230/OASIcs.ATMOS.2012.35
Conference or Workshop Item, Bibliographie

Abstract

Finding reliable train connections is a considerable issue in timetable information since train delays perturb the timetable daily. We present an effective probabilistic approach for estimating the reliability of connections in a large train network. Experiments on real customer queries and real timetables for all trains in Germany show that our approach can be implemented to deliver good results at the expense of only little processing time. Based on probability distributions for train events in connections, we estimate the reliability of connections. We have analyzed our computed reliability ratings by validating our predictions against real delay data from German Railways. This study shows that we are able to predict the feasibility of connections very well. In essence, our predictions are slightly optimistic for connections with a high rating and pretty accurate for connections with a medium rating. Only for the rare cases of a very low rating, we are too pessimistic. Our probabilistic approach already delivers good results, still has improvement potential, and offers a new perspective in the search for more reliable connections in order to bring passengers safely to their destinations even in case of delays.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item
Erschienen: 2012
Creators: Keyhani, Mohammad ; Schnee, Mathias ; Weihe, Karsten ; Zorn, Hans-Peter
Type of entry: Bibliographie
Title: Reliability and Delay Distributions of Train Connections
Language: English
Date: September 2012
Book Title: 12th Workshop on Algorithmic Approaches for Transportation Modelling, Optimization, and Systems (ATMOS 12)
Event Location: Ljubljana, Slovenia
DOI: 10.4230/OASIcs.ATMOS.2012.35
Abstract:

Finding reliable train connections is a considerable issue in timetable information since train delays perturb the timetable daily. We present an effective probabilistic approach for estimating the reliability of connections in a large train network. Experiments on real customer queries and real timetables for all trains in Germany show that our approach can be implemented to deliver good results at the expense of only little processing time. Based on probability distributions for train events in connections, we estimate the reliability of connections. We have analyzed our computed reliability ratings by validating our predictions against real delay data from German Railways. This study shows that we are able to predict the feasibility of connections very well. In essence, our predictions are slightly optimistic for connections with a high rating and pretty accurate for connections with a medium rating. Only for the rare cases of a very low rating, we are too pessimistic. Our probabilistic approach already delivers good results, still has improvement potential, and offers a new perspective in the search for more reliable connections in order to bring passengers safely to their destinations even in case of delays.

Uncontrolled Keywords: Stochastic Delay Propagation, Timetable Information, Connection Reliability
Identification Number: TUD-CS-2012-0193
Divisions: 20 Department of Computer Science > Algorithmics
20 Department of Computer Science
Date Deposited: 13 Mar 2016 20:50
Last Modified: 15 May 2018 13:33
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