Ottemöller, Ole (2017)
Modelling Change in Supply Chain Structures and its Effect on Freight Transport Demand.
Technische Universität Darmstadt
Dissertation, Erstveröffentlichung
Kurzbeschreibung (Abstract)
Economic activity, especially in the manufacturing industries, is a major determinant of freight transport. Since the actual manufacturing processes are bound to specialised business establishments, which are only partially dispersed across space, commodity flows are required that connect locations of excess supply with locations that show unfulfilled demand for goods. In this context, economic reasoning of the involved actors leads to the formation of industry specific supply chain structures. Various authors emphasise the interrelation of these continuously evolving supply chain structures and freight transport demand. However, so far no disaggregate model exists that explicitly captures this interdependence.
The study at hand addresses this gap by developing a disaggregate model for simulating the impact of change in supply chain structures on the corresponding freight transport demand. The proposed model covers centralisation and vertical disintegration as examples of structural change. For this purpose, the model quantitatively describes spatially disaggregate supply chain structures, consisting of business establishments and commodity flows, on the level of entire sectors. The model development is accompanied by an interdisciplinary literature review that gives an overview of existing research on supply chain structures and freight transport demand.
The developed model consists of two phases. A first phase generates an artificial industry landscape of business establishments and commodity flows according to available aggregate statistics. The generation relies on elements of stochastic simulation and directed choice procedures. The model's second phase simulates change in the supply chain structures from the first phase. Using linear programming, a maximum solution range regarding the impact on freight transport is calculated. Increasing the degree of assumptions, the solution space can be narrowed. Here, the model applies a combination of stochastic simulation, linear programming, and fitting procedures.
The model is applied for analysing centralisation in the poultry industry and vertical disintegration in the automotive industry of Germany. For both cases, a broad range of data sources is used, e.g. common public statistics on establishment sizes and spatial distribution of employment but also sectoral data, e.g. from industry associations or case studies. The real-world consistency of spatial flow patterns is ensured by assigning commodity flows according to statistical macroscopic flows.
Overall, the simulation results show that an increase in freight transport performance is to be expected for the case of centralisation as well as vertical disintegration. However, the maximum solution ranges also indicate that assuming suitable location choice and flow assignment a reduction in freight transport performance is mathematically possible. The analysis also addresses the suitability of state measures for mitigating the impact of changes in the supply chain structure on freight transport demand.
In summary, the work describes a disaggregate model for simulating changes in the supply chain structure and their impact on freight transport demand. The model applications especially illustrate how the immanently required assumptions determine the impact of centralisation or vertical disintegration.
Typ des Eintrags: | Dissertation | ||||
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Erschienen: | 2017 | ||||
Autor(en): | Ottemöller, Ole | ||||
Art des Eintrags: | Erstveröffentlichung | ||||
Titel: | Modelling Change in Supply Chain Structures and its Effect on Freight Transport Demand | ||||
Sprache: | Englisch | ||||
Referenten: | Boltze, Prof. Dr. Manfred ; Friedrich, Prof. Dr. Hanno | ||||
Publikationsjahr: | 2017 | ||||
Ort: | Darmstadt | ||||
Datum der mündlichen Prüfung: | 4 Juli 2017 | ||||
URL / URN: | http://tuprints.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/6641/1/Diss-Ottemoeller-... | ||||
Kurzbeschreibung (Abstract): | Economic activity, especially in the manufacturing industries, is a major determinant of freight transport. Since the actual manufacturing processes are bound to specialised business establishments, which are only partially dispersed across space, commodity flows are required that connect locations of excess supply with locations that show unfulfilled demand for goods. In this context, economic reasoning of the involved actors leads to the formation of industry specific supply chain structures. Various authors emphasise the interrelation of these continuously evolving supply chain structures and freight transport demand. However, so far no disaggregate model exists that explicitly captures this interdependence. The study at hand addresses this gap by developing a disaggregate model for simulating the impact of change in supply chain structures on the corresponding freight transport demand. The proposed model covers centralisation and vertical disintegration as examples of structural change. For this purpose, the model quantitatively describes spatially disaggregate supply chain structures, consisting of business establishments and commodity flows, on the level of entire sectors. The model development is accompanied by an interdisciplinary literature review that gives an overview of existing research on supply chain structures and freight transport demand. The developed model consists of two phases. A first phase generates an artificial industry landscape of business establishments and commodity flows according to available aggregate statistics. The generation relies on elements of stochastic simulation and directed choice procedures. The model's second phase simulates change in the supply chain structures from the first phase. Using linear programming, a maximum solution range regarding the impact on freight transport is calculated. Increasing the degree of assumptions, the solution space can be narrowed. Here, the model applies a combination of stochastic simulation, linear programming, and fitting procedures. The model is applied for analysing centralisation in the poultry industry and vertical disintegration in the automotive industry of Germany. For both cases, a broad range of data sources is used, e.g. common public statistics on establishment sizes and spatial distribution of employment but also sectoral data, e.g. from industry associations or case studies. The real-world consistency of spatial flow patterns is ensured by assigning commodity flows according to statistical macroscopic flows. Overall, the simulation results show that an increase in freight transport performance is to be expected for the case of centralisation as well as vertical disintegration. However, the maximum solution ranges also indicate that assuming suitable location choice and flow assignment a reduction in freight transport performance is mathematically possible. The analysis also addresses the suitability of state measures for mitigating the impact of changes in the supply chain structure on freight transport demand. In summary, the work describes a disaggregate model for simulating changes in the supply chain structure and their impact on freight transport demand. The model applications especially illustrate how the immanently required assumptions determine the impact of centralisation or vertical disintegration. |
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URN: | urn:nbn:de:tuda-tuprints-66411 | ||||
Sachgruppe der Dewey Dezimalklassifikatin (DDC): | 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 380 Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr 600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 620 Ingenieurwissenschaften und Maschinenbau |
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Fachbereich(e)/-gebiet(e): | 13 Fachbereich Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften > Verbund Institute für Verkehr 13 Fachbereich Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften > Verbund Institute für Verkehr > Institut für Verkehrsplanung und Verkehrstechnik 13 Fachbereich Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften |
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Hinterlegungsdatum: | 30 Jul 2017 19:55 | ||||
Letzte Änderung: | 24 Mai 2018 11:24 | ||||
PPN: | |||||
Referenten: | Boltze, Prof. Dr. Manfred ; Friedrich, Prof. Dr. Hanno | ||||
Datum der mündlichen Prüfung / Verteidigung / mdl. Prüfung: | 4 Juli 2017 | ||||
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