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Reliability of Public Private Partnership Projects under Assumptions of Cash Flow Volatility

Schöbener, Henning ; Schetter, Christoph ; Pfnür, Andreas :
Reliability of Public Private Partnership Projects under Assumptions of Cash Flow Volatility.
[Online-Edition: http://www.real-estate.bwl.tu-darmstadt.de/media/bwl9/dateie...]
In: Pfnür, Andreas (Hrsg.), Arbeitspapiere zur immobilienwirtschaftlichen Forschung und Praxis, Band Nr. 11 . Fachgebiet Immobilienwirtschaft und Baubetriebswirtschaftslehre, Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Technische Universität Darmstadt , Darmstadt
[Report], (2007)

Offizielle URL: http://www.real-estate.bwl.tu-darmstadt.de/media/bwl9/dateie...

Kurzbeschreibung (Abstract)

This paper focuses on dynamic financial modelling of recurring cash flow items in PPP projects in operating stage and on risks associated with the volatility of these cash flows. As we concentrate on so-called government-pays schemes, only cash-outflows are considered, such as operating costs, repairs and maintenance expenses, and administration costs, whereas the revenue side is considered to be not at risk. We show different approaches to modelling the uncertainty of recurring operating expenses and explain how to interpret the results. Our analysis is based on the mathematical framework of stochastic processes, which, in finance, are particularly used to describe price series evolutions in capital markets. We apply them to generate variable trajectories of operating costs and integrate them into a stochastic simulation of the financial model.

Typ des Eintrags: Report
Erschienen: 2007
Autor(en): Schöbener, Henning ; Schetter, Christoph ; Pfnür, Andreas
Titel: Reliability of Public Private Partnership Projects under Assumptions of Cash Flow Volatility
Sprache: Englisch
Kurzbeschreibung (Abstract):

This paper focuses on dynamic financial modelling of recurring cash flow items in PPP projects in operating stage and on risks associated with the volatility of these cash flows. As we concentrate on so-called government-pays schemes, only cash-outflows are considered, such as operating costs, repairs and maintenance expenses, and administration costs, whereas the revenue side is considered to be not at risk. We show different approaches to modelling the uncertainty of recurring operating expenses and explain how to interpret the results. Our analysis is based on the mathematical framework of stochastic processes, which, in finance, are particularly used to describe price series evolutions in capital markets. We apply them to generate variable trajectories of operating costs and integrate them into a stochastic simulation of the financial model.

Reihe: Pfnür, Andreas (Hrsg.), Arbeitspapiere zur immobilienwirtschaftlichen Forschung und Praxis, Band Nr. 11
Ort: Darmstadt
Verlag: Fachgebiet Immobilienwirtschaft und Baubetriebswirtschaftslehre, Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Technische Universität Darmstadt
Freie Schlagworte: Public Private Partnerships; Operating Costs; Risk Modelling; Stochastic Processes; Stochastic Simulation
Fachbereich(e)/-gebiet(e): Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Betriebswirtschaftliche Fachgebiete > Immobilienwirtschaft und Baubetriebswirtschaftslehre
Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften > Betriebswirtschaftliche Fachgebiete
Hinterlegungsdatum: 24 Aug 2009 16:34
Offizielle URL: http://www.real-estate.bwl.tu-darmstadt.de/media/bwl9/dateie...
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26 S.

ID-Nummer: ISSN Nr. 1862-2291
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