Yang, Wenyu ; Zhao, Ziyong ; Pan, Liping ; Li, Ruifei ; Wu, Shixue ; Hua, Pei ; Wang, Haijun ; Schmalz, Britta ; Krebs, Peter ; Zhang, Jin (2024)
Integrated risk analysis for urban flooding under changing climates.
In: Results in Engineering, 24
doi: 10.1016/j.rineng.2024.103243
Artikel, Bibliographie
Kurzbeschreibung (Abstract)
Urban flooding poses significant threats to human lives and urban development worldwide, while the impact of climate change on urban flooding remains unclear. To systematically analyze the variabilities of hydrological patterns and urban flooding under changing climates, this study coupled the downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projection with hydrologic-hydraulic modeling, with consideration of both the low-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario of SSP1–2.6 and the high-GHG emission scenario of SSP5–8.5. Results demonstrated that the original GCM projection effectively captured the changing trend of rainfall patterns in the given area, with an overestimation of rainfall peaks. The GCM downscaling through the k-nearest neighbors (kNN)-based analog method significantly improved the model accuracy. Scenario analysis indicated that climate change significantly affected the regional hydrology, with the precipitation, surface runoff, and floods increasing by a maximum value of 17.10%, 12.66%, and 63.26%, respectively. The interannual comparison demonstrated that the temporal variability in precipitation and flood intensified with the increase in GHG emissions during 2025–2100, suggesting the uncertainty of long-term climate forecasts. According to flood risk analysis, long-term and short-term floods exhibit varied changing trends across climate scenarios, despite the strong correlations between precipitation and runoff, implying the complexity of flood generation mechanisms. The methods and findings herein provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners, to cope with the increasing urban flood risk within the context of evolving environment.
| Typ des Eintrags: | Artikel |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: | 2024 |
| Autor(en): | Yang, Wenyu ; Zhao, Ziyong ; Pan, Liping ; Li, Ruifei ; Wu, Shixue ; Hua, Pei ; Wang, Haijun ; Schmalz, Britta ; Krebs, Peter ; Zhang, Jin |
| Art des Eintrags: | Bibliographie |
| Titel: | Integrated risk analysis for urban flooding under changing climates |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Publikationsjahr: | Dezember 2024 |
| Verlag: | Elsevier |
| Titel der Zeitschrift, Zeitung oder Schriftenreihe: | Results in Engineering |
| Jahrgang/Volume einer Zeitschrift: | 24 |
| Kollation: | 11 Seiten |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.rineng.2024.103243 |
| Kurzbeschreibung (Abstract): | Urban flooding poses significant threats to human lives and urban development worldwide, while the impact of climate change on urban flooding remains unclear. To systematically analyze the variabilities of hydrological patterns and urban flooding under changing climates, this study coupled the downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projection with hydrologic-hydraulic modeling, with consideration of both the low-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario of SSP1–2.6 and the high-GHG emission scenario of SSP5–8.5. Results demonstrated that the original GCM projection effectively captured the changing trend of rainfall patterns in the given area, with an overestimation of rainfall peaks. The GCM downscaling through the k-nearest neighbors (kNN)-based analog method significantly improved the model accuracy. Scenario analysis indicated that climate change significantly affected the regional hydrology, with the precipitation, surface runoff, and floods increasing by a maximum value of 17.10%, 12.66%, and 63.26%, respectively. The interannual comparison demonstrated that the temporal variability in precipitation and flood intensified with the increase in GHG emissions during 2025–2100, suggesting the uncertainty of long-term climate forecasts. According to flood risk analysis, long-term and short-term floods exhibit varied changing trends across climate scenarios, despite the strong correlations between precipitation and runoff, implying the complexity of flood generation mechanisms. The methods and findings herein provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners, to cope with the increasing urban flood risk within the context of evolving environment. |
| Freie Schlagworte: | Urban flooding, Climate change, GCM downscaling, kNN-based analog method, Gumbel distribution method |
| ID-Nummer: | Artikel-ID: 103243 |
| Fachbereich(e)/-gebiet(e): | 13 Fachbereich Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften 13 Fachbereich Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften > Institut Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft 13 Fachbereich Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften > Institut Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft > Fachgebiet Ingenieurhydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung LOEWE LOEWE > LOEWE-Zentren LOEWE > LOEWE-Zentren > emergenCITY |
| Hinterlegungsdatum: | 12 Dez 2024 07:03 |
| Letzte Änderung: | 12 Dez 2024 07:32 |
| PPN: | 524544166 |
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