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Reliability and Delay Distributions of Train Connections

Keyhani, Mohammad and Schnee, Mathias and Weihe, Karsten and Zorn, Hans-Peter (2012):
Reliability and Delay Distributions of Train Connections.
In: 12th Workshop on Algorithmic Approaches for Transportation Modelling, Optimization, and Systems (ATMOS 12), Ljubljana, Slovenia, ISBN 978-3-939897-45-3,
DOI: 10.4230/OASIcs.ATMOS.2012.35, [Conference or Workshop Item]

Abstract

Finding reliable train connections is a considerable issue in timetable information since train delays perturb the timetable daily. We present an effective probabilistic approach for estimating the reliability of connections in a large train network. Experiments on real customer queries and real timetables for all trains in Germany show that our approach can be implemented to deliver good results at the expense of only little processing time. Based on probability distributions for train events in connections, we estimate the reliability of connections. We have analyzed our computed reliability ratings by validating our predictions against real delay data from German Railways. This study shows that we are able to predict the feasibility of connections very well. In essence, our predictions are slightly optimistic for connections with a high rating and pretty accurate for connections with a medium rating. Only for the rare cases of a very low rating, we are too pessimistic. Our probabilistic approach already delivers good results, still has improvement potential, and offers a new perspective in the search for more reliable connections in order to bring passengers safely to their destinations even in case of delays.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item
Erschienen: 2012
Creators: Keyhani, Mohammad and Schnee, Mathias and Weihe, Karsten and Zorn, Hans-Peter
Title: Reliability and Delay Distributions of Train Connections
Language: ["languages_typename_1" not defined]
Abstract:

Finding reliable train connections is a considerable issue in timetable information since train delays perturb the timetable daily. We present an effective probabilistic approach for estimating the reliability of connections in a large train network. Experiments on real customer queries and real timetables for all trains in Germany show that our approach can be implemented to deliver good results at the expense of only little processing time. Based on probability distributions for train events in connections, we estimate the reliability of connections. We have analyzed our computed reliability ratings by validating our predictions against real delay data from German Railways. This study shows that we are able to predict the feasibility of connections very well. In essence, our predictions are slightly optimistic for connections with a high rating and pretty accurate for connections with a medium rating. Only for the rare cases of a very low rating, we are too pessimistic. Our probabilistic approach already delivers good results, still has improvement potential, and offers a new perspective in the search for more reliable connections in order to bring passengers safely to their destinations even in case of delays.

Title of Book: 12th Workshop on Algorithmic Approaches for Transportation Modelling, Optimization, and Systems (ATMOS 12)
ISBN: 978-3-939897-45-3
Uncontrolled Keywords: Stochastic Delay Propagation, Timetable Information, Connection Reliability
Divisions: 20 Department of Computer Science > Algorithmics
20 Department of Computer Science
Event Location: Ljubljana, Slovenia
Date Deposited: 13 Mar 2016 20:50
DOI: 10.4230/OASIcs.ATMOS.2012.35
Identification Number: TUD-CS-2012-0193
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