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Quantification of uncertainties associated to radar-based precipitation nowcasts for hydrological modeling applications

Hack, Jochen (2007):
Quantification of uncertainties associated to radar-based precipitation nowcasts for hydrological modeling applications.
TU Darmstadt, [Online-Edition: http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/42078/],
[Master Thesis]

Abstract

In recent years a number of severe floods have caused loss of life and property worldwide. Climate change is increasing the risk of such catastrophes. This risk has to be managed accurately in order to prevent damages reliably. For this purpose investigative projects are executed in selected study areas with special vulnerability. The Besòs River Basin is a meso-scale catchment in the surroundings of the Spanish metropolis of Barcelona. This area is prone to flash floods that may affect highly urbanized areas very quickly. The basin is one of the study areas of the Early Warning Systems Efficiency (EWASE) project within the framework of the CRUE ERA-NET integrated project, supported by the European Commission under the Sixth Framework Programme. The project aims at the evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of Early Warning Systems (EWS). EWS are elaborated to provide information on expected discharges and water levels. In order to take preventive measures (i.e. submission of flood alerts, evacuation etc.), which could avoid significant damages, the actual occurrence of critical flood peaks has to be predicted with the longest lead time as possible. The accuracy and reliability of a hydrological forecast depends strongly on this forecast lead time. Another aspect that challenges the utility of flood forecast are uncertainties in the modeling process. Sources for forecast uncertainties are errors of numerous kinds. In this study the focus is laid on the uncertainty regarding data errors. The precipitation data for this study originates from radar precipitation nowcasts. The radar measurement as an indirect method is used to derive precipitation. Thus, the provided radar data is subject to additional errors due to data interpretation. Where the advantages of high spatial and temporal resolution of the radar measurements improve the application of an area-detailed, conceptual deterministic rainfall-runoff model (the Water Balance Raster Model WBRM in this case), the disadvantages have to be considered as input uncertainty as well. The quantification of these uncertainties associated to radar-based precipitation nowcasts for hydrological modeling applications will be exemplarily assessed in this study.

Item Type: Master Thesis
Erschienen: 2007
Creators: Hack, Jochen
Title: Quantification of uncertainties associated to radar-based precipitation nowcasts for hydrological modeling applications
Language: German
Abstract:

In recent years a number of severe floods have caused loss of life and property worldwide. Climate change is increasing the risk of such catastrophes. This risk has to be managed accurately in order to prevent damages reliably. For this purpose investigative projects are executed in selected study areas with special vulnerability. The Besòs River Basin is a meso-scale catchment in the surroundings of the Spanish metropolis of Barcelona. This area is prone to flash floods that may affect highly urbanized areas very quickly. The basin is one of the study areas of the Early Warning Systems Efficiency (EWASE) project within the framework of the CRUE ERA-NET integrated project, supported by the European Commission under the Sixth Framework Programme. The project aims at the evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of Early Warning Systems (EWS). EWS are elaborated to provide information on expected discharges and water levels. In order to take preventive measures (i.e. submission of flood alerts, evacuation etc.), which could avoid significant damages, the actual occurrence of critical flood peaks has to be predicted with the longest lead time as possible. The accuracy and reliability of a hydrological forecast depends strongly on this forecast lead time. Another aspect that challenges the utility of flood forecast are uncertainties in the modeling process. Sources for forecast uncertainties are errors of numerous kinds. In this study the focus is laid on the uncertainty regarding data errors. The precipitation data for this study originates from radar precipitation nowcasts. The radar measurement as an indirect method is used to derive precipitation. Thus, the provided radar data is subject to additional errors due to data interpretation. Where the advantages of high spatial and temporal resolution of the radar measurements improve the application of an area-detailed, conceptual deterministic rainfall-runoff model (the Water Balance Raster Model WBRM in this case), the disadvantages have to be considered as input uncertainty as well. The quantification of these uncertainties associated to radar-based precipitation nowcasts for hydrological modeling applications will be exemplarily assessed in this study.

Uncontrolled Keywords: rainfall-runoff, hydrological modeling, radar nowcasts, Besòs River, Catalonia
Divisions: 11 Department of Materials and Earth Sciences > Earth Science
11 Department of Materials and Earth Sciences > Earth Science > Ecological Engineering
13 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Sciences
13 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Sciences > Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering
13 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Sciences > Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering > Engineering Hydrology and Water Management
11 Department of Materials and Earth Sciences
Date Deposited: 18 Mar 2011 08:26
Official URL: http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/42078/
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