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Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?

Neugart, Michael and Rode, Johannes (2021):
Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?
In: European Economic Review, 133, p. 103665. ISSN 0014-2921,
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103665,
[Article]

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Abstract

We explore whether retrospective voting is related to voters' democratic experience. To this end, we compare the voting behavior in West Germany to the voting behavior in the formerly non-democratic East Germany after a disaster relief program addressing a flood in 2013. Our analysis reveals a 2.2 (or 0.9 percentage points) increase in the vote share for the incumbent party in the flooded municipalities in the East compared to the West. Analyzing an earlier flood, variation of democratic experience within East Germany, and a panel survey provides further evidence that less democratically experienced voters are easier prey to pre-election policies.

Item Type: Article
Erschienen: 2021
Creators: Neugart, Michael and Rode, Johannes
Title: Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?
Language: English
Abstract:

We explore whether retrospective voting is related to voters' democratic experience. To this end, we compare the voting behavior in West Germany to the voting behavior in the formerly non-democratic East Germany after a disaster relief program addressing a flood in 2013. Our analysis reveals a 2.2 (or 0.9 percentage points) increase in the vote share for the incumbent party in the flooded municipalities in the East compared to the West. Analyzing an earlier flood, variation of democratic experience within East Germany, and a panel survey provides further evidence that less democratically experienced voters are easier prey to pre-election policies.

Journal or Publication Title: European Economic Review
Journal volume: 133
Uncontrolled Keywords: Retrospective voting, Natural disaster, Democratic experience, Relief program
Divisions: 01 Department of Law and Economics
01 Department of Law and Economics > Volkswirtschaftliche Fachgebiete
01 Department of Law and Economics > Volkswirtschaftliche Fachgebiete > International Economics
01 Department of Law and Economics > Volkswirtschaftliche Fachgebiete > Fachgebiet Finanzwissenschaft und Wirtschaftspolitik
Date Deposited: 03 Feb 2021 12:28
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103665
Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292121...
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