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Machine Learning Based Very Short Term Load Forecasting of Machine Tools

Dietrich, Bastian and Walther, Jessica and Weigold, Matthias and Abele, Eberhard (2020):
Machine Learning Based Very Short Term Load Forecasting of Machine Tools.
In: Applied Energy, 276, p. 115440. Elsevier B.V., ISSN 03062619,
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115440,
[Article]

Abstract

With the ongoing integration of renewable energies into the electrical power grid, industrial energy flexibility gains importance. To enable demand response applications, knowledge about the future energy demand is necessary. This paper presents a machine learning process to forecast the very short term load of two machine tools, which can be utilized as a decision support basis for control schemes and measures to increase energy flexibility and decrease energy cost in manufacturing. The presented process is developed and evaluated on production machines in a research factory. The results indicate that the developed machine learning process is feasible and creates an accurate very short term load forecasting model for different production machines. It can be used as a blueprint to develop load forecasting models for other production machines using the historic load profile and various machine and process data. A combination of time series features and an Artificial Neural Network proves to be the most robust model regarding the presented machine tools with achieved coefficients of determination between 0.57 and 0.64 for a 100 step forecast. Improvements are still needed regarding the forecasting accuracy, especially of load peaks, for which different measures are proposed.

Item Type: Article
Erschienen: 2020
Creators: Dietrich, Bastian and Walther, Jessica and Weigold, Matthias and Abele, Eberhard
Title: Machine Learning Based Very Short Term Load Forecasting of Machine Tools
Language: English
Abstract:

With the ongoing integration of renewable energies into the electrical power grid, industrial energy flexibility gains importance. To enable demand response applications, knowledge about the future energy demand is necessary. This paper presents a machine learning process to forecast the very short term load of two machine tools, which can be utilized as a decision support basis for control schemes and measures to increase energy flexibility and decrease energy cost in manufacturing. The presented process is developed and evaluated on production machines in a research factory. The results indicate that the developed machine learning process is feasible and creates an accurate very short term load forecasting model for different production machines. It can be used as a blueprint to develop load forecasting models for other production machines using the historic load profile and various machine and process data. A combination of time series features and an Artificial Neural Network proves to be the most robust model regarding the presented machine tools with achieved coefficients of determination between 0.57 and 0.64 for a 100 step forecast. Improvements are still needed regarding the forecasting accuracy, especially of load peaks, for which different measures are proposed.

Journal or Publication Title: Applied Energy
Journal volume: 276
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Energy Flexibility;feature engineering;Load forecasting;machine learning;Machine tool
Divisions: 16 Department of Mechanical Engineering
16 Department of Mechanical Engineering > Institute of Production Technology and Machine Tools (PTW)
16 Department of Mechanical Engineering > Institute of Production Technology and Machine Tools (PTW) > ETA Energy Technologies and Applications in Production
Date Deposited: 29 Jul 2020 05:13
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115440
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