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Projected Changes in Climate and Hydrological Regimes of the Western Siberian Lowlands

Sada, Rajesh and Schmalz, Britta and Kiesel, Jens and Fohrer, Nicola (2019):
Projected Changes in Climate and Hydrological Regimes of the Western Siberian Lowlands.
In: Environmental Earth Sciences, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 56 (1-15), 78, (2), ISSN 1866-6280, DOI: 10.1007/s12665-019-8047-0, [Online-Edition: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-019-8047-0],
[Article]

Abstract

In this study, we analyse possible future climatic changes in three catchments, namely, Pyshma, Vagai and Loktinka located in the Western Siberian lowland region, and the resulting impact on hydrological regimes. It involved downscaling the GCM outputs based on the established statistical relationship between large-scale atmospheric variables and station data and simulating the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes via hydrological modelling. This was done for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 based on second-generation Canadian Earth System Model used in the IPCC fifth assessment report. This paper provides the first climate change projections on a local scale in these catchments. The statistical downscaling showed that there will be an increase in both maximum and minimum temperature at all stations under all scenarios. The mean annual daily precipitation increased in Loktinka and Pyshma basins under all scenarios, but there was no clear trend in Vagai basin. The possible increase in annual precipitation is mostly due to the projected increase in autumn and winter precipitation. Annual streamflow tends to increase in all catchments under all scenarios.

Item Type: Article
Erschienen: 2019
Creators: Sada, Rajesh and Schmalz, Britta and Kiesel, Jens and Fohrer, Nicola
Title: Projected Changes in Climate and Hydrological Regimes of the Western Siberian Lowlands
Language: English
Abstract:

In this study, we analyse possible future climatic changes in three catchments, namely, Pyshma, Vagai and Loktinka located in the Western Siberian lowland region, and the resulting impact on hydrological regimes. It involved downscaling the GCM outputs based on the established statistical relationship between large-scale atmospheric variables and station data and simulating the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes via hydrological modelling. This was done for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 based on second-generation Canadian Earth System Model used in the IPCC fifth assessment report. This paper provides the first climate change projections on a local scale in these catchments. The statistical downscaling showed that there will be an increase in both maximum and minimum temperature at all stations under all scenarios. The mean annual daily precipitation increased in Loktinka and Pyshma basins under all scenarios, but there was no clear trend in Vagai basin. The possible increase in annual precipitation is mostly due to the projected increase in autumn and winter precipitation. Annual streamflow tends to increase in all catchments under all scenarios.

Journal or Publication Title: Environmental Earth Sciences
Volume: 78
Number: 2
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Uncontrolled Keywords: Temperature change; Precipitation change; Statistical downscaling; Hydrological modelling; Western Siberia
Divisions: 13 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Sciences
13 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Sciences > Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering
13 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Sciences > Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering > Engineering Hydrology and Water Management
Date Deposited: 29 Jan 2019 10:13
DOI: 10.1007/s12665-019-8047-0
Official URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-019-8047-0
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